Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2000-2010   [open pdf - 5MB]

"This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change-births, deaths, and migration-to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. These baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 [Magnitude 7.8] earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital." Figures (1-7) illustrate migration statistics by county in Southern California.

Report Number:
Open File Report 2008-1212
Public Domain. Permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce copyrighted material within this report.
Retrieved From:
USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR): http://www.usgs.gov/natural_hazards/safrr/
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