Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake   [open pdf - 16MB]

"The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business establishments, or 44 percent of all establishments, would experience Instrumental Intensities between VII (7) and X (10). This represents more than 4 million employees earning over $45 billion in quarterly payroll. Over 57,000 of these establishments, employing over 1 million employees earning over $10 billion in quarterly payroll, would experience Instrumental Intensities of IX (9) or X (10). Based upon absolute counts and percentages, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Super Sector and the Manufacturing Super Sector are estimated to have the greatest exposure and sensitivity respectively. The Information and the Natural Resources and Mining Super Sectors are estimated to be the least impacted. Areas estimated to experience an Instrumental Intensity of X (10) account for approximately 3 percent of the region's labor market." Figures (1-15) and Tables (1-7) illustrate industry data and effects on payroll of the labor market Southern California.

Report Number:
Open File Report 2008-1211
Public Domain. Permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce copyrighted material within this report.
Retrieved From:
USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR): http://www.usgs.gov/natural_hazards/safrr/
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