Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Intraregional Commuter, Worker, and Earnings Flow Analysis [open pdf - 14MB]
This report for the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program, in conjunction with the magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut Scenario, examines the potential impact on employees commuting to work in Southern California if an earthquake were to occur. From the introduction: "This report uses selected datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and the State of California's Employment Development Department to develop preliminary estimates of the number and spatial distribution of commuters who cross the San Andreas Fault and to characterize these commuters by the industries in which they work and their total earnings. The analysis concerns the relative exposure of the region's economy to the effects of the earthquake as described by the location, volume, and earnings of those commuters who work in each of the region's economic sectors. It is anticipated that damage to transportation corridors traversing the fault would lead to at least short-term disruptions in the ability of commuters to travel between their places of residence and work." Figures (1-3) and Tables (1-4) illustrate the impact of an earthquake on commuter flow and employment growth rates, by county, throughout Southern California.
Open File Report 2008-1254
Public Domain. Permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce copyrighted material within this report.
USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR): http://www.usgs.gov/natural_hazards/safrr/