Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake   [open pdf - 9MB]

This report for the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program, in conjunction with the magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut Scenario, examines the potential impact on small businesses in Southern California if an earthquake were to occur. From the introduction: "The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region (Jones and others, 2008). This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses." Figures (1-7) and Tables (1-5) illustrate an earthquake's impact on employees in designated establishments throughout Southern California.

Report Number:
Open File Report 2008-1222
Public Domain. Permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce copyrighted material within this report.
Retrieved From:
USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR): http://www.usgs.gov/natural_hazards/safrr/
Media Type:
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