Early Warning Signs and Indicators to Genocide and Mass Atrocity   [open pdf - 5MB]

"Non-Governmental Organizations, research and academic institutions, charities, and international organization efforts to track and monitor activities and conditions in high-risk settings provide uniquely useful indicators and warning of possible mass atrocity and genocide. Third party access to credible and legitimate information about conflict leading to genocide and mass atrocity through sound methodologies that inform, can be critical to effective U.S. efforts to meet its obligations under the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Information is a key asset for policy makers' ability to determine actual or potential genocide and mass atrocity (GMA) situations. According to the military's assessment of requirements for responding to GMA, indications and warnings are central and an overall weakness in the U.S. approach. Third parties use different methodologies to observe and warn of instability, conflict, war, and genocide and mass atrocity. Third parties' warning signs and indicators provide information, context, and understanding of possible mass atrocity and genocide events. This research investigates the usefulness of third party GMA prevention advocates. It examined several third party methodologies for detecting GMA warning signs and indicators against criteria and asked: How effective are third party methodologies to provide warnings and indicators to possible mass atrocity and genocide events?"

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