Bazaar Diplomacy: Examining Iran's Nuclear Bargaining Tactics   [open pdf - 429KB]

"Since undeclared elements of Iran's nuclear program were revealed in 2002, Tehran has engaged in a decade of bargaining to justify and advance its nuclear program. During these ten years, Iran enhanced its sensitive nuclear capabilities despite international opposition. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has come to monitor 16 declared Iranian nuclear facilities, including three uranium enrichment facilities, three uranium fabrication and conversion facilities, and six nuclear reactors. […] This research examines Iran's nuclear bargaining with international community from 2003 onwards to understand how Iran has withstood international pressure to proceed with its nuclear program. Unlike North Korea's withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has maximized advantage and minimized backlash by maneuvering within and near the borders of the NPT system. To do so, Iran has embraced a three-pronged approach that 'divides' international opposition and 'delays' and 'defies' international monitoring and sanctions. While it is unclear what long-term strategic objectives Iran wishes to achieve with its nuclear capabilities, Tehran has successfully bargained to gain time for its nuclear program. This research first explores Iranian bargaining behavior before dissecting the divide, delay, and defy tactics that Iran has and currently uses to complicate international efforts to check its nuclear program. The paper concludes by examining how various factors may be changing Iran's ability to bargain with the international community."

Report Number:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Technical Report 594452; LLNL-TR-594452
Public Domain
Retrieved From:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: https://www.e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/
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