Seasons of Change: Lessons from the Arab Spring   [open pdf - 262KB]

From the thesis abstract: "The Arab Spring is an event that has radically shifted the geopolitical landscape in one of the most volatile regions of the world. Many experts and policy makers were caught off guard by the speed and organizational ability that characterized these revolutions. As the dust settles and the United States begins to reassess the new environment, this monograph asserts that certain indicators can assist planners in predicting both the nature of potential revolutions and the likelihood of stability following revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East. This study asserts that the civil military relationship in the affected countries is that primary variable. By analyzing economics, political pluralism and the civil-military relationships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, this monograph concludes the constant indicator for less violent revolutions, as well as the attainment of revolutionary goals, was a universally accepted civil-military relationship. This monograph also provides a framework for planners to approach potentially unstable countries, in order to provide better analysis for Geographic Combatant Commanders and civilian policymakers. Finally, this monograph suggests a more nuanced approach be taken in the execution of theater strategy, focusing more on the analysis of civil-military relations, followed by theater engagements that attempt to inculcate these norms."

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