State-Building Challenges in a Post-Revolution Libya   [open pdf - 3MB]

"A peaceful transition to a new form of government in Libya is of vital importance not only to the people of Libya, but to neighboring countries--and to security in the broad sense much farther afield. Yet, at the time of this writing, the new interim leadership remains fragile, with limited capacity and sovereignty, and the inability to enforce security is still a critical challenge. There is a risk of conditions being created that could lead to Libya becoming a fragile or indeed a failed state. Despite the mitigation of the threat from supporters of the old regime, the interim government has no monopoly on the legitimate use of violence. The security risks of Libya's uncontrolled armed militias are not restricted to within national borders. By jeopardizing state-building efforts, clashes between militias or between militias and government authorities threaten to undermine the security of neighboring countries and the international community. Risks include renewed waves of refugee flows to Tunisia, Egypt, and across the Mediterranean to Italy and beyond, and continuing disruption to oil production, which will once again deprive the international market of Libyan oil and harm the economic interests of U.S. and European companies. Furthermore, the current lack of a capable national army leaves Libya an open playing field to be exploited by international criminal or terrorist groups active in the region."

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U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/
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