COIN Modeling: An MDMP Technique for Planning Counter-Insurgency Campaigns   [open pdf - 351KB]

"This monograph argues that the UEX [Unit of Execution] planner must broaden the MDMP [military decision making process] in order to make it an effective COIN [counterinsurgency] planning process. The MDMP was designed as a planning process for conventional operations. It is, therefore, focused on planning conventional operations leading to the defeat of the enemy in battle. Successful COIN operations do not necessarily lead to a decisive battle, but successfully isolate the insurgent from his sources of power. Therefore, an effective COIN planning process must be comprehensive enough to address the military and non-military conditions that sustain the insurgency. This requires the planners to understand the critical aspects of the overall society and its key participants while developing logical lines of operations to achieve the desired endstate. This monograph recommends a modification to the MDMP in order to make it compatible with the realities of counter-insurgency warfare. The term coined here for the new planning technique is COIN Modeling."

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