Mid-session Hearings on the Budget, Hearings Before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate, One Hundred Seventh Congress Second Session, June 27 - October 25, 2001 [open pdf - 12MB]
From the opening statement of Kent Conrad: "Today, we will look at how the economic outlook has changed since CBO [Congressional Budget Office] made its baseline projections in January, with an emphasis on how uncertain that outlook remains, particularly with respect to the long-term trend in productivity. Tomorrow, we will focus on the available surplus. We have now, in looking back at CBO's January baseline, we see that there were some signs that the economy might be slowing after a period of very rapid economic growth. Nevertheless, most economists at the time believed that the longest economic expansion on record still had plenty of room to run. The CBO baseline budget projected $5.6 trillion of surpluses between 2002 and 2011, based on a relatively favorable short-term and long-term economic outlook. In the short-run, CBO assumed the economy would experience a mild slowdown in 2001 and a recovery in 2002. Growth in real GDP [Gross Domestic Product], they indicated, would fall from an estimate 5.1 percent in 2000 to 2.4 percent in 2001, with a bounce back to 3.4 percent in 2002." Statements, letters, and materials submitted for the record include those of the following: Kent Conrad, Martin Baily, Robert Bixby, Carol Cox Wait, Dan L. Crippen, Mitchell Daniels, William C. Dudley, William Gale, Robert Greenstein, Kevin A. Hassett, Glenn R. Hubbard, Alan Krueger, Peter Orszag, Brian Wesbury, and Paul Wolfowitz.
S. Hrg. 107-1087; Senate Hearing 107-1087
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