This "Theory of Surprise, Part 2" lecture module was created as part of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's course on Intelligence for Homeland Security: Organizational and Policy Challenges taught by James J. Wirtz at the Naval Postgraduate School. "Much is written about intelligence failure, but little is written about the failure of surprise. Scholars have focused on successful surprise at the operational level of war, not on the effect of surprise attacks often produce spectacular results temporarily or locally, but surprise rarely wins wars. Successful operational surprise may even hasten defeat by mobilizing the victim (e.g., the American response to Pearl Harbor) or expending scarce assets without achieving a decisive victory (e.g., the fate of the Nazi offensive through the Ardennes forest in the winter of 1944). Even when surprise produces positive strategic consequences, the price can be extraordinarily high."
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