West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments: Bias-Corrected and Spatially Downscaled Surface Water Projections [open pdf - 2MB]
"The focus of this report is to describe the development of these surface water hydrologic projections and to provide a summary evaluation of climate change implications for surface water hydrology in the eight major Reclamation river basins listed in the SECURE Water Act. [...] The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 of the report provides background on the role of climate information in water resources planning and management. Chapter 3 describes the future climate projections used for developing the surface water hydrologic projections, including how the climate projections were bias-corrected and spatially downscaled for use in this activity. Chapter 4 presents the methodology used for developing the hydrologic projections, including: 1) Rationale for selecting hydrologic model applications for use in this activity. 2) Description of the chosen hydrologic model-applications 3) A discussion of how these hydrologic model-applications were used in a climate projection context, including simulation setup and generation of weather inputs consistent with climate projections. 4) Characterization of runoff simulation biases and their implications for assessing hydrologic impacts. Chapter 5 presents the summary overview of hydrologic projections in the eight major Reclamation river basins listed above. The overview focuses on annual climate projections over the basins, decadal changes in temperature and precipitation, decadal changes in April 1st snowpack, and decadal changes in mean-monthly and mean-seasonal runoff. Chapter 6 presents a summary discussion of the uncertainties associated with the hydrologic analysis. These uncertainties range from the climate through the hydrologic tool utilized to assess the natural hydrologic response to the climate projections."
Technical Memorandum No. 86-68210-2011-01
United States. Bureau of Reclamation: http://www.usbr.gov/