Evaluating Components of International Migration: Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates Research Project Statement of Findings [open pdf - 91KB]
"Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the 1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000. Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration, temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project. This report focuses on the evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau's estimate of foreign-born emigration from the United States between 1980 and 1990. Estimates produced by Ahmed and Robinson (1994) and Oosse (1998) were recreated and evaluated by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin to determine if the estimated flows were realistic. In addition, an attempt was made to create new foreign-born emigration estimates for the 1990 and 2000 decade using the preliminary results from Census 2000. Based on recreation and evaluation efforts, Ahmed and Robinson and Oosse estimates appear sound and represent the most recent and most reliable data on foreign-born emigration available. Future research is needed to evaluate the application of a residual method to estimate foreign-born emigration. In addition, efforts will focus on creating new estimates using alternative methodologies and data sources."
Population Division Working Paper #62
Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/