Evaluating Components of International Migration: Consistency of 2000 Nativity Data   [open pdf - 134KB]

"Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the 1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000. Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration, temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project. This report focuses on the consistency of the data sources related to the foreign-born population. Specifically, the analysis examines the comparability and consistency of data from three different data sources collected in 2000: the March 2000 Current Population Survey (original and reweighted); the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey; and a provisional Census 2000 nativity data file. We examine differences in estimates among survey/census items specific to the foreign-born population- citizenship, place of birth and year of entry- as well as by general population characteristics, such as age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. Our evaluation reveals that there is no significant difference in the total foreign born estimated among the data sources (when controlling for differences in coverage and methodologies). The provisional Census 2000 estimate of 30.6 million foreign born does not differ significantly from the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey estimate of 30.5 million foreign born. Further, both of these figures fall within the 90-percent confidence interval of the (reweighted) March 2000 Current Population Survey estimate of 30.1 million foreign born. Additional detailed comparisons show similar results, a general consistency in nativity data across data sources."

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