National Crisis Management and Technology   [open pdf - 2MB]

"Research relevant to the forecasting of intranational and international security crises has proceeded in four significant areas. First, basic research regarding the sources and decision-making process of crises has proliferated since the early sixties. Second, interdisciplinary research regarding the development and use of quantitative variables and indicators has also progressed rapidly in the last decade. Third, during this same period, the art of forecasting has convincingly evolved into a credible science; and finally, the development of computerized techniques for the storage, retrieval, processing, and display of data has dramatically improved. However, there have been very few attempts to integrate these areas into a coherent concept which would allow the development, test, and implementation of a national crisis warning and management system."