Analysis of Avian Influenza Virus Issues for the Catastrophic Assessment Task Force (CATF) Table-Top Exercise [open pdf - 2MB]
"This document summarizes analyses of the factors affecting a potential outbreak of avian influenza on the United States. Produced by the DHS National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) (a DHS/IP program utilizing a core partnership of Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories) and CIP/DSS (a DHS/S&T program, a core partnership of Sandia, Los Alamos, and Argonne National Laboratories), the document provides results for epidemiological, economic, and infrastructure studies, with the intent of aiding decision makers by analyzing the consequences and tradeoffs associated with decisions at different points in the course of a pandemic. DHS's information needs are both short-term and long-term, and while containing and mitigating the consequences of an outbreak is of central concern, the continued functioning of infrastructures must also be addressed to ensure social services and overall quality of life. Optimal decision-making will depend greatly on the specifics of any potential pandemic. A policy decision that may be optimal for the initial stages of disease outbreak could be deleterious several weeks or months later."