Scenario Analysis of the Expected Number of Hospitalisations and Deaths Due to Pandemic Influenza in the Netherlands [open pdf - 0B]
"Another influenza pandemic, following those of 1918, 1957, and 1968, is likely, if not inevitable. In a regular influenza epidemic, 5%-20% of the population becomes clinically ill; during a pandemic, this percentage can mount to 30% or even 50%. A pandemic could cause substantial social disruption, insofar as it would involve a large proportion of the population contracting a serious or less serious form of the illness. In order to minimise the effects of such a potential pandemic on the population, the Dutch Ministry on Health, Welfare and Sport has drawn up an influenza pandemic contingency plan to be prepared to cope with mass illness and the burden on the health care services. The objective of this study is to calculate the expected numbers of hospital admissions and deaths in case of an influenza pandemic. As many uncertainties are involved in this type of studies, we have developed alternative scenarios and consulted experts for their opinions on these scenarios and on the underlying model and assumptions. The effects of the intervention scenarios are compared in terms of preventing hospitalisation and mortality. Possible intervention strategies are vaccinations against influenza or pneumococcal infections (one of the possible complications of influenza) of certain groups or the prescription of antiviral medicine (within 48 hours after the first symptoms) for each person with an influenza-like illness."
RIVM Report 282701002/2002
2002 Government of the Netherlands. All rights reserved.
Internet Archive: http://web.archive.org/web/20091017141501/http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/netherlands2.pdf