Forecasting Retention in the United States Marine Corps Reserve   [open pdf - 1MB]

"This is an empirical study using a logistic regression model to assess the impact of mobilization and unemployment on an individuals decision to stay in or leave the reserves. The goal is to find out the attrition behavior of USMCR participants in order to better establish recruiting and retention goals in the Reserve population. Questions regarding attrition influencers, effects of mobilization, and applicability to both officer and enlisted personnel were reviewed in this process. The effects of being called to active service are shown to have a positive effect on retention in the reserves. Similarly, serving in the SMCR and Stand-by Reserves are both shown in the model to have a positive effect on reserve retention. The findings indicate that multiple short activations have a positive impact, whereas the impact of fewer, lengthy activations is negative This study validated previous research regarding the likelihood to continue to serve in the Marine Corps Reserves. As a result, the Marine Corps has the potential to better allocate resources and schedule individual activations, reducing attrition. This can assist in shaping the force structure when the Marine Corps are needed."

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Naval Postgraduate School, Dudley Knox Library: http://www.nps.edu/Library/index.aspx
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