War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists Armed with Chemical and Biological Weapons -- Chapter 5: Pointing the Finger: Unclassified Methods to Identify Covert Biological Warfare Programs [open pdf - 448KB]
Biological weapons (BW) have been called "the poor man's nuclear bomb" due to their comparatively cheap production costs. This chapter looks at how models for predicting development of a BW program and unclassified indicators can be used to "point the finger" by applying them to four case studies of actual or alleged programs. It includes a discussion of the current state of cooperation between the intelligence and scientific communities and offers several suggestions for their enhanced cooperation. The chapter also considers 26 indicators that mark an outbreak of disease as a suspicious BW agent and will discuss them in relation to natural outbreaks of infectious disease.
USAF Counterproliferation Center, http://www.au.af.mil
The War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists Armed with Chemical and Biological Weapons (April 2004), Chapter 5, pp.89-144