ABSTRACT

Precipitating the Decline of Terrorist Groups: A Systems Analysis   [open pdf - 4MB]

This thesis shows how a government actor can use systems theory to hasten the decline of a terrorist group. Tle author assumes terrorist groups are social organizations, therefore terrorist groups come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. The same determinants that cause social organizations to decline will cause terrorist organizations to decline. Using systems theory to model terrorism as a system, it is possible to show how to influence these determinants to increase the terrorist group's rate of decline. T'he systems model allows a government actor to build intervention strategies tailored to counter a specific terrorist organization. The government actor can use the model to identify and then target the terrorist's weak points. It also enables the government actor to determine its own strengths and to use them against the terrorist system weak points. Finally, the analysis tests the model against case studies of the Red Brigades in Italy, and the Front De Liberation du Quebec (FLQ) in Canada. A case study of Abu Nidal tests the proposition that terrorist groups, like other social organizations, eventually come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. Terror as a system, Red brigades, FLQ, Critical error, Delegitimization, Mercurial success, Burnout, Environmental entropy, Government response, Media

Author:
Publisher:
Date:
1994-03
Copyright:
Public Domain
Retrieved From:
Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC): http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/
Format:
pdf
Media Type:
application/pdf
URL:
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