Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East: A Medium-Term Assessment, Prepared for the National Intelligence Council by Paul Jabber, December 27, 2001 [open pdf - 77KB]
The purpose of this analysis is to assess the likely impact that the US campaign against global terrorism launched in the wake of the attacks of September 11th, 2001, will have on key American interests in the Middle East over the medium term (next 12 months). The main focus will be on the expected perceptions and reaction to US policy of selected important Middle East actors, regime stability and changing regional alignments. To render the analysis relevant to policy-making and policy assessment, the approach here will be parsimonious, not comprehensive. The United States presently maintains an extensive and continually growing presence in the Middle East, with diplomatic, military, commercial and cultural dimensions. The region contains long-identified vital US national interests, and security commitments toward several key states. This analysis is structured around two core questions: 1. How will the region absorb and react to the USG's war on terrorism in its regional manifestations, given that by necessity the Middle East will turn out to be the main theater of operations? 2. Which US policy choices are more likely to be effective in limiting the threat of terrorist strikes against the homeland in particular and other countries generally?