U.S. International Trade: Trends and Forecasts [March 6, 2009]   [open pdf - 294KB]

"The U.S. trade deficit is shrinking primarily because the global financial crisis is causing U.S. imports to drop faster than U.S. exports. The global simultaneous recession, however, implies that exporting countries cannot rely on increased foreign demand to make up for slack demand at home. Even though U.S. imports are projected to decline, companies competing with imports are still likely to face diminishing demand as the domestic economy shrinks. These conditions imply that the political forces to protect domestic industry from imports are likely to intensify both in the United States and abroad. [...]. Trade deficits are a concern for Congress because they may generate trade friction and pressures for the government to do more to open foreign markets, to shield U.S. producers from foreign competition, or to assist U.S. industries to become more competitive. Overall U.S. trade deficits reflect excess spending (a shortage of savings) in the domestic economy and a reliance on capital imports to finance that shortfall. Capital inflows serve to offset the outflow of dollars used to pay for imports. Movements in the exchange rate help to balance trade. The rising trade deficit (when not matched by capital inflows) places downward pressure on the value of the dollar which, in turn, helps to shrink the deficit by making U.S. exports cheaper and imports more expensive. Central banks in countries such as China, however, have intervened in foreign exchange markets to keep the value of their currencies from rising too fast. [...]. This report will be updated periodically."

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CRS Report for Congress, RL33577
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