Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2000 to 2030 - A Summary of Findings [open pdf - 1MB]
"This report summarizes the results of a new analysis of the probability of significant earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region for the coming three decades. The principal results of this study, which was led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), are being released on October 14, 1999, by three means: (1) in a presentation by the Working Group Chair, Dr. David Schwartz, to local and national government figures and earthquake response officials at a General Assembly of the Association of Bay Area Governments, commemorating the tenth anniversary of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake; (2) in USGS Fact Sheet 152-99, 'Major Quake Likely to Strike Between 2000 and 2030,' written for a general audience; and (3) in the following document, written for a more technically inclined audience that may include scientists, engineers, hazard experts, and science writers. This document begins with a Summary, followed by a Preliminary Technical Report for those interested in details of the methods employed by the Working Group."
United States Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-517
United States Geological Survey: http://www.usgs.gov/