Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications, Conference Report [open pdf - 250KB]
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled The Implications of Global Climate Change in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America, held on 31 August 2009, brought together a panel of regional experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America from a social, political, and economic perspective." Conclusions by the panelists include: "climate change may increase prospects for conflict in the region"; "strong civil society organizations play an important role in moderating the effects of climate change as they provide a means of communication between local people and state actors"; "state centralization and control correlate well with emergency preparedness"; "all states in the region show some capacity to recover from damage caused by extreme weather events"; "most states in the region lack the institutional mechanisms to effectively address the long-term threats posed by climate change"; and "the United States will probably face ever-increasing pressure to provide humanitarian assistance to neighbors to avoid large numbers of refugees and to reduce the risk of local conflicts that could require US military intervention."
National Intelligence Council: http://www.dni.gov/
National Intelligence Council Conference on the Implications of Global Climate Change in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America. August 31, 2009