Priority Directions for Research on Tsunami Hazard Estimation: Cascadia Subduction Zone, Pacific Northwest Coast of North America [open pdf - 1MB]
"Cascadia subduction zone tsunamis could conceivably cause the loss of tens of thousands of lives on t he Pacific Northwest coast of North America . Paleoseismic and other data support Cascadia earthquakes with moment magnitudes of -9, rupture lengths of ,-1000 km, and recurrence of 400-600 years; the last event was 301 years a go, so t he conditional probability of another occurring in the next 100 years is high. Hydrodynamic simulations depicting destructive potential of Cascadia tsunamis have been hindered chiefly by uncertainties in the earthquake source, rupture simulation methods, and lack of independent verification. Uncertainties in the hydrodynamic simulation methods and in oceanographic factors (e .g ., non•linear tidal effects) are also of concern; however , coseismic seafloor deformation is a much greater source of error. Research priorities should therefore be directed toward refinement of our knowledge of asperities, splay faults, total fault slip, and rupture simulation algorithms . Tsunami and fault dislocation simulations should be checked against coseismic deformation, inundation, water depth, and current velocities estimated independently from investigations of paleotsunami deposits and buried salt marsh soils. An organized interdisciplinary team effort operating within the framework of a comprehensive science plan is clearly needed. Leadership at the federal level in both Canada and the United States is the key to further progress."
Historical Archive Site for The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: http://nthmp-history.pmel.noaa.gov/
ITS 2001 Proceedings, Session 1, Number 1-3