North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (Selected Countries): A Commissioned Research Report [open pdf - 1MB]
"This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the effects of climate change on selected countries in North Africa, drawing on the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, National Communications to the United Nations Framework (UNFCCC) on Climate Change, and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impacts as sea-level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which the countries in the region are vulnerable to climate change impact. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC's [Intelligence Community's] understanding of potential impacts on North Africa and other countries/regions."
Office of the Director of National Intelligence: http://www.dni.gov/