Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Research Report [open pdf - 3MB]
"This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on selected countries in Central America and the Caribbean. It draws on the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, National Communications to the United Nations Framework (UNFCCC) on Climate Change, statistical data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impacts as sea level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which the countries in the region are vulnerable to impact of climate change. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC [Intelligence Community] understanding of potential impacts on Central America and the Caribbean and other countries/regions."
Office of the Director of National Intelligence: http://www.dni.gov/