"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled, The Implications of Global Climate Change in North Africa, held on 20 August, 2009, brought together a panel of experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on North Africa from a social, political, and economic perspective. The workshop focused on Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. The panelists concluded that systemic state failures attributable solely to climate change to 2030 are not likely. However, climatic stress coupled with socioeconomic crises and ineffective state responses could generate localized social or governmental collapses and humanitarian crises. The effects of climate change in North Africa will exacerbate the region's existing challenges of insufficient water and food resources, low economic growth, inadequate urban infrastructure, and weak sociopolitical systems."
Office of the Director of National Intelligence: http://www.dni.gov/
National Intelligence Council Conference on the Implications of Global Climate Change in North Africa. August 20, 2009