National Discussion on Predictive Policing: Defining Our Terms and Mapping Successful Implementation Strategies   [open pdf - 419KB]

"George Kelling, Ph.D., of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, placed predictive policing in the context of law enforcement's movement toward a more empirical base. He provided a brief historical summary of the roots of predictive policing, mentioning a number of reports and research studies from the 1950s to the present. The core idea: in policing, process trumps outcomes. He said he is not opposed to empirical or evidence-based research, to intelligence-led policing or to the predictive model. The problem is that the U.S. criminal justice system does not have enough tools and research to support the development of evidence-based practices. Even if police departments did have sufficient tools and research to draw on, the results would address only a small portion of the problems. He said that this does not mean we should stop trying, but that we must recognize this is only a small proportion of the total business of policing. Kelling added that we should proceed with predictive policing and develop intelligence-led policing. In the meantime, however, there is a whole body of police work that will continue to be driven by anecdotes and stories that we should also be analyzing."

Report Number:
NCJ 230404
Public Domain
Retrieved From:
National Criminal Justice Reference Center: http://www.ncjrs.gov/
Media Type:
Help with citations