ABSTRACT

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World   [open pdf - 33MB]

"Global Trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the National Intelligence Council-led efforts to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future." "We prepared Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World to stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study (e.g., globalization, demography, the rise of new powers, the decay of international institutions, climate change, and the geopolitics of energy) may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decision-makers. The study as a whole is more a description of the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen. By examining a small number of variables that we judge probably will have a disproportionate influence on future events and possibilities, the study seeks to help readers to recognize signposts indicating where events are headed and to identify opportunities for policy intervention to change or lock in the trajectories of specific developments. [...]. For example, the report's examination of the transition out of dependence on fossil fuels illustrates how different trajectories will entail different consequences for specific countries. An even more important message is that leadership matters, no trends are immutable, and that timely and well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones."

Report Number:
NIC 2008-003
Publisher:
Date:
2008-11
Copyright:
Public Domain
Retrieved From:
U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence: http://www.dni.gov/
Format:
pdf
Media Type:
application/pdf
URL:
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Listed on December 3, 2008 [Critical Releases]