Identifying Gendered Trajectories of Offending for a Panel of First Time Youth Offenders: Exploring the Influence of Time-Stable Covariates   [open pdf - 745KB]

"Gendered trajectories of juvenile offending over an eight year observation period are specified for a retrospective longitudinal sample of 15,959 female and male first time offenders up to age 18 in a southeastern state. Semiparametric group modeling is used to specify offending trajectories for a response variable operationalized as a frequency count of unique complaints by age. Time-stable psychosocial and systems-level covariates are also investigated as predictors of likely trajectory group membership. The probability of trajectory group membership is investigated as a predictor for secure incarceration. Results specify a three-solution model for juvenile females and a six-solution model for juvenile males. Prior child maltreatment -- substantiated as well as alleged but dismissed - is a predictor of moderate- to higher-level offending across all gendered trajectories (with the exception of one higher-level but decreasing male trajectory). Living in a blended family (mother plus stepfather or father plus stepmother), living with grandparents, and living with relatives at first offense are all correlated with moderate -level offending for male juveniles. Living in foster care at first offense is a predictor for both lower-level and higher-level female offending. Both the three-solution female model and the six-solution male model predict incarceration."

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National Criminal Justice Reference Service: http://www.ncjrs.gov/
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