Threat Assessment of Hazardous Materials Transportation in Aircraft Cargo Compartments [open pdf - 8MB]
"The U.S. Department of Transportation's (DOT) John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) has conducted a quantitative threat assessment for the Office of Hazardous Materials Safety (OHMS) to determine the probability that a life-threatening incident would occur as a result of transporting hazardous materials in aircraft cargo compartments. The study team developed a threat assessment model and refined threat scenarios with the help of a panel of experts who contributed potential countermeasures, suggested experimental tests and provided input data for the model. The model calculated the likelihood of life-threatening incidents based on the presence of a package containing various selected "worst likely" hazardous materials, the specific cargo compartment type and the package's given state of compliance (or non-compliance) with current DOT hazardous materials regulations."
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies: http://trb.org/