Adversary Modeling: An Analysis of Criminal Activities Analogous to Potential Threats to Nuclear Safeguard Systems [open pdf - 1MB]
"In this study we have examined and subjected to analysis several classes of incidents in which decision makers are confronted with adversaries. Classes of incidents were selected such that one or more attributes of the chosen incidents are analagous to attributes of potential situations in which an adversary interacts with a material control system in a nuclear facility. The first portion of our study focuses upon the threat posed internally, i.e. upon the threat posed by employees and management to the security of the institution. [...] In the second portion of the study, we analyze certain aspects of the external threat to the security of nuclear facilities again front the perspective of analog situations. [...] The final pages of the report contain the results of a preliminary analysis of terrorist events in which hostages were taken in an attempt to extract either financial, prisoner release or political demands."
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