Gathering Biological Warfare Storm -- Chapter 7: Prospects for Biological War in the Middle East [open pdf - 105KB]
This is Chapter 7 of the book "The Gathering Bioligical Warfare Storm". From the Introduction: "The proliferation of biological weapons to states in the Middle East has raised questions about whether, when, and how such weapons might be used there. In the absence of systematic investigation of these questions, different views have taken hold in different parts of the Washington policy community. Among defense planners there is a broad-based belief that likelihood of use is high, largely on the view that their military utility is potentially very high--especially for asymmetric conflicts against the United States. Among country and regional experts there is broad-based skepticism that such weapons will ever be used, largely on the view that such weapons are unproven historically and too risky in terms of the harsh responses they might generate. A third view is sometimes expressed among political-military analysts: that such use is likely only in last resort in an effort to assure regime survival--on the model of potential Iraqi BW use against the Desert Storm coalition, as it has come to be understood subsequently. This paper begins with a series of propositions about the patterns of conflict likely to be seen in the region over the coming decade. The resulting taxonomy is then used to develop some propositions about the likelihood of the use of biological weapons by state and non-state actors. Two scenarios are then selected for more in-depth analysis. This analysis elaborates the strategic logic that could lead to the use of biological weapons, including especially the perceived potential benefits and risks of such weapons relative to the other assets, conventional and non-conventional, within the actor's reach. It concludes with a brief review of key insights."
USAF Counterproliferation Center: http://www.au.af.mil/
Davis, Jim A. and Schneider, Barry (Eds). The Gathering Biological Warfare Storm. USAF Counterproliferation Center, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama: April 2002, 2nd Edition, Ch.7