"From 1986-1996, the world energy supply increased by 2.6 percent per year, excluding the former Soviet Union (FSU) where production fell sharply. Oil's share of the world energy supply held constant at about 40 percent; natural gas' share rose to 23 percent, while coal's fell to 27 percent, with hydro and nuclear power sources making up the remaining 10 percent. Most natural gas and coal supplies are consumed in the country in which they are produced; oil makes up about 90 percent of the energy traded between countries. The main factor driving the increasing supply of energy between 1986-96 was not price. In fact, prices were not particularly attractive for producers." According to this paper, "Energy supply trends are good for Western Security. Dependence on the volatile Persian Gulf may increase only slightly, as additional supplies come from stable pro-Western areas. [...] An energy security issue for the coming decade will be adjusting to the next energy trade pattern, in which East Asia and the Persian Gulf become more tightly tied--each more reliant on the other."
Strategic Forum No.130