'All Our Tomorrows': A Long-Range Forecast of Global Trends Affecting Arms Control Technology [open pdf - 322KB]
"This report summarizes a three-phase research project undertaken by the USAF Institute for National Security Studies on behalf of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency to forecast longrange global trends affecting arms control technologies. The report projects the international political, economic, and scientific environments to the year 2015. It posits economic and technological drivers as shaping the system, including its military and political dimensions. The result will be a two-tiered system, with great danger arising from significant proliferation in the second tier and the transition zone between tiers. The report next draws conclusions from this likely future for the scope, value, and practice of arms control. Arms control will be focused less on limitation and reduction of existing weapons, although the endgame there between the United States and Russia will remain a significant effort. The focus will shift to the less well-defined realm of counterproliferation, and to marginal, failing, and failed states as well as non-traditional and non-state actors. New dimensions will be added, including control efforts toward small arms, advanced conventional weapons, military space, and information operations. The report then extrapolates from this future to assess the likely arms control technology requirements in cooperative, noncooperative, intrusive, and non-intrusive regimes. The projection here is continuing requirements for each of these specialized sets of technologies, with particular emphasis on multiple use technologies for remote arms control compliance and verification monitoring as well as for intelligence detection and collection. Similarly, area arms control monitoring systems must be capable of application for force protection applications. Data management/knowledge management will become a top priority for arms control, as will the continuing development of human expertise in this advanced area of specialization." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
INSS Occasional Paper 44
Public Domain. Downloaded or retrieved via external web link as part of the PASCC collection.
ASCO/PASCC Archives via NPS Center on Contemporary Conflict